Editor’s Note: GeekWire co-founders Todd Bishop and John Cook created this column by recording themselves discussing the topic, asking AI to draft a piece based on their conversation, and then reviewing and editing the copy before publishing. Listen to the raw audio below.
If we look out GeekWire’s office window right now, down at Seattle’s Burke-Gilman Trail, we can practically guarantee one thing: if we wait 5 minutes, at least one Rad Power Bike will zip past. Probably more. They are ubiquitous — the “Tesla of e-bikes” that seemed to redefine urban transport during the pandemic.
But that physical prominence masks a brutal business reality. In the last few weeks, the Seattle tech scene has been rocked by two stories that feel like different verses of the same sad song, as documented by GeekWire reporter Kurt Schlosser. First, Glowforge — the maker of high-end 3D laser printers — went into receivership and was restructured. Then came the news that Rad Power Bikes might be forced to close entirely.
We’ve each covered the Seattle region’s tech ecosystem for around 25 years, and if there is one enduring truth in the Pacific Northwest, it is that hardware is not only hard, as the old saying goes, but for some reason it seems harder here.
It is naturally harder to manipulate atoms than digits. If Windows has a bug, Microsoft pushes an update. If a Rad Power Bike has a busted tire or a faulty component, you can’t fix it with a line of code. You need a supply chain, a mechanic, and a physical presence.
But the struggles of Rad and Glowforge go beyond the physical manufacturing challenges. They are victims of two specific traps: the quirks of the pandemic and the curse of too much capital.
Both companies were born before the pandemic, but they boomed during it. When the world locked down, the thesis for both companies looked invincible. We were all sitting at home in our PJs, desperate for a hobby — so why not buy a Glowforge and laser-print trinkets? We were wary of public transit and looking for recreation — so why not buy an e-bike?
Many tech companies, including giants like Amazon and Zoom, bet big that these behavioral changes were permanent. They weren’t. And we are seeing some of the indigestion of that period play out with massive layoffs at tech companies that got too big, too fast during the pandemic years. The world went back to normal, or at least found a new normal, but in the meantime these companies had scaled for a reality that no longer exists.
Then there is the money. In 2021, Rad Power Bikes raised over $300 million. When you raise that kind of cash, you are no longer allowed to be a nice, profitable niche business. You have to be a platform. You have to be a world-changer. Rad tried to build a massive ecosystem, including direct-to-consumer retail stores and mobile service vans to fix bikes in people’s driveways.
Building a physical service network is agonizingly expensive. Had they raised less and stayed focused on being a great bike maker, we might be having a different conversation. But venture capital demands a “Tesla-sized” outcome, and that pressure can crush a consumer hardware company.
History tells us we shouldn’t be surprised. Seattle has a painful relationship with consumer hardware. We’ve got one word for you: Zune. Or how about the Fire Phone? Or Vicis, the high-tech football helmet maker that crashed and burned. For those with long memories, the current situation rhymes with the saga of Terabeam in the early 2000s. They raised over $500 million to beam internet data through the air using lasers. It was a B2B play, not consumer, but the pattern was identical: massive hype, massive capital, and a technology that was difficult to deploy in the real world. They eventually sold for a fraction of what they raised.
We still love seeing those bikes on the Burke-Gilman. But in this economy, with inflation squeezing discretionary spending, $1,500 e-bikes and $4,000 laser printers are a tough sell.
Seattle may be the cloud capital of the world, but when it comes to consumer hardware, we’re still learning that you can’t just download a profit margin.